In a striking turn of events, the landscape on Polymarket, a popular online prediction platform, has shifted dramatically over the past two weeks. Where it once seemed almost certain that Donald Trump would be the next President of the United States, the tide has now turned in favor of the Democratic candidate and current Vice President, Kamala Harris.
As of now, Polymarket users, who wager using the stablecoin USDC, are placing their bets on Harris with a 51% likelihood of winning the presidency. In contrast, Trump’s chances have dwindled to 47%. The remaining 2% are distributed among outdated bets on Michelle Obama and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., highlighting how rapidly the dynamics of the race have changed.
To date, Polymarket participants have pooled around $640 million into this betting market, a sum that will be distributed once the results of the U.S. presidential election are officially confirmed.
Swing States Show a Split
The crucial swing states, always the decisive factor in U.S. elections, are also reflecting this shift. According to Polymarket bettors, Harris is leading in three key states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, each by a significant margin. Meanwhile, Trump is favored in Georgia and Nevada. Arizona, a perennial battleground, remains too close to call, with bets split 50:50.
These betting trends closely mirror current polling data, which has shown Harris maintaining a slight lead over Trump since early August. Trump, who once seemed to be gaining momentum following a failed assassination attempt and the nomination of J.D. Vance as his running mate, now appears to have lost his edge.
Polymarket’s Surge and New Partnership
Polymarket itself has been on an upward trajectory. The platform’s diverse betting options, ranging from the spread of monkeypox to U.S. interest rate cuts and sports outcomes, have attracted increasing amounts of user deposits in recent weeks. In August alone, more USDC was deposited than during the same period in July, reflecting the growing interest in the platform.
To enhance user engagement, Polymarket has recently introduced a collaboration with the AI service Perplexity. This integration allows users to access automated AI-generated summaries from the hyped AI startup, which positions itself as an alternative answer engine to Google, directly within the platform. This move is part of Polymarket’s strategy to keep users engaged for longer periods, offering them not just betting opportunities but also insightful, AI-driven content.
As the U.S. presidential race continues to evolve, Polymarket remains a fascinating lens through which to view public sentiment and expectations. Whether Harris can maintain her lead or if Trump will stage a comeback remains to be seen, but for now, the odds are shifting in ways few could have predicted just weeks ago.
