Diplomats from Qatar, Egypt, and the United States are making a last-ditch effort to broker a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas as the threat of an Iranian attack on Israel looms large. The high-stakes negotiations, set to take place on Thursday, are aimed at reviving a ceasefire-hostage deal first proposed by US President Joe Biden in May. While the proposal initially received positive responses from both sides, key differences have stalled progress, leaving the path to peace unclear.
Biden’s Three-Phase Ceasefire Proposal
Biden’s proposal outlines a comprehensive three-phase plan designed to de-escalate the conflict and address humanitarian concerns. The first phase calls for a six-week truce, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas in Gaza, and the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. The second phase aims to extend the ceasefire permanently, coupled with the release of all remaining hostages. Finally, the third phase would focus on the reconstruction of Gaza and the return of any hostages’ remains.
However, unresolved issues have hampered the plan’s implementation. Both Hamas and Israel have struggled to agree on critical details such as the sequence of prisoner exchanges, the number of prisoners to be released, and the extent of Israel’s military withdrawal from Gaza.
Mediation Efforts and Remaining Sticking Points
Thursday’s meeting will see the involvement of high-profile figures including CIA Director Bill Burns, Mossad Chief David Barnea, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Jassim Al Thani, and Egyptian intelligence head Abbas Kamel. Israel is sending a delegation to the talks, but Hamas has signaled it will not participate directly. Instead, Hamas has stated it will wait for further developments before engaging with mediators.
The primary obstacles to an agreement include Israel’s insistence on veto power over the Palestinian prisoners to be released and restrictions on the movement of armed men in Gaza. Netanyahu’s government has faced internal pressures from far-right coalition members, complicating the negotiation process.
The Broader Regional Context
The urgency of these negotiations is heightened by the possibility of an Iranian attack on Israel. Following the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran—an act Iran has blamed on Israel—tensions have escalated significantly. Diplomatic sources indicate that Iran may consider abandoning its plans for retaliation if a ceasefire is achieved, though Tehran has stated that its response is “totally unrelated” to the ceasefire talks.
The situation is further complicated by the internal dynamics within Hamas. The group’s new leader, Yahya Sinwar, is considered more hardline than his predecessor and is less susceptible to external pressures, raising concerns about Hamas’s willingness to compromise.
Time Running Out
With the threat of wider regional conflict looming, Thursday’s talks may represent the last opportunity to broker a ceasefire before violence escalates further. Mediators are pushing for what they describe as a “final bridge proposal” to overcome the remaining obstacles, but with time running out, the prospects for success remain uncertain.
The international community watches anxiously as efforts to prevent a broader war and secure the release of hostages hang in the balance.
